Decades ago, the Washington Post ran a carton showing White House advisors gibbering in terror backstage as a beaming Ronald Reagan suddenly looked away from the teleprompt and started ad-libbing…oh no, stick to the script! Likewise, calamity awaits whenever Christopher Luxon begins to speak off the cuff. It is like a horror movie. The speech patterns can be almost human, but it is the eerie sound of a suit without a soul.
That aside, Luxon’s “parent-child” TED talk to business wasn’t the worst mistake he’s made over the past fortnight. Amid a crowded field, the awkwardly announced exclusion of Opportunity from any future National-led government has to take that prize. By doing so, Luxon has increased National’s dependence on Winston Peters, just when Peters is becoming more and more politically radioactive.
For months, National’s poll numbers have been registering below 30%. Evidently, significant numbers of National’s socially conservative wing have been shifting to New Zealand First. At the same time, an equally sizeable number of the party’s socially liberal urban conservatives – who can’t stand Peters and Shane Jones – have been treating Opportunity as an alternative to National’s unholy liaison with New Zealand First.
In response, Luxon has resorted to crude scare tactics – Opportunity is a socialist Trojan Horse! – to try to staunch the outflow. In effect, National is thereby quietly renewing the vows in its marriage of convenience with New Zealand First.
Opportunity’s own response to all this has been pitch perfect. It will talk with National post-election, but will not join any government configuration in which Winston Peters remains as Foreign Minister. This was a neat reminder to social liberals that Luxon is a Peters enabler, and that a strong Opportunity showing may be the only alternative to a seemingly never-ending dependence on the reactionaries within NZF.
The main obstacle to Opportunity continuing to erode National’s core support – especially among women voters, many of whom also have misgivings about the social impact of ACT’s cheerily callous welfare policies – would be if the National caucus finally came to its senses, and changed its leader.
That’s unlikely. For now, National MPs are rallying behind their gormless leader. Obediently, they have likened the huge hole that Luxon dug for himself in Rotorua to a mere slip of the tongue. The furore over Luxon’s performance has been painted as a distraction from “the real issues that Kiwis want to talk about.”
Trouble is, the real issue that Kiwi employers in Rotorua wanted to talk about was one that Luxon himself didn’t want to address. Namely, how can business get out of the trap whereby if they raise prices to recoup their rising costs, they will drive away even more of their customers. Luxon had no answers. But boy, did he keep on talking.
This is a problem not just for the small to medium scale business owners in Rotorua and elsewhere. From now until November, we’re all on course for more tone-deaf lectures from a Prime Minister whose political wisdom seems to have been derived entirely from the self-motivational shelf at the airport bookshop.
It is starting to feel like a long time until election day.
Footnote One : National is still keen on its Three Strikes policy, even though – oddly enough – its leader has never been subjected to the same bracing logic. As result of his kid gloves treatment by caucus, Luxon has racked up quite an impressive rap sheet of gaffes, policy fumbles, mis-statements and abject failures to read the room. Despite his promises to do better in future, nothing seems to work with this habitual offender. Maybe its time for Mark Mitchell and his colleagues to lock Luxon out of the PM’s office, and throw away the key.
Winning Texas
Currently the Republicans enjoy an effective 53/47 majority edge in the US Senate and with J. D. Vance also on hand if ever required, to cast a tie-breaking vote. Yet in November’s midterm elections, Democratic candidates currently have polling leads in deeply Republican states like Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska. Unfortunately, some self-inflicted problems are hindering Democratic efforts in Maine and Michigan, and Democratic senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania appears to be on the brink of defecting to the Republican side, if the Democrats don’t stop criticising Israel.
Why should we care? Because the world needs some constraints placed around Trump’s use of his regal powers. Right now, a Democratic led Senate would be the only significant obstacle to Trump’s ongoing demolition of the US Constitution. Of all the above contests, Texas offers the starkest, most interesting contrasts.
James Talarico, the 37 year old Democratic Party candidate is a Texas state legislator and doctoral student in theological studies at a Presbyterian seminary. Earlier this year, Talarico’s interview with Stephen Colbert turned into a fascinating discussion about right-wing cancel culture, the rise of Christian nationalism, and the co-opting of Christian messaging by right wing political parties.
Talarico’s opponent in November is Ken Paxton, an arch Trump loyalist. Paxton is also the Texas Attorney General, despite a political career consisting of a bewildering series of fraud, corruption, sexual impropriety and impeachment scandals. Repeatedly, Paxton has also used his powers as Attorney- General for a series of anti-Muslim, anti-abortion and anti LGBTQ stunts. This sort of baggage isn’t ancient history.
On polling over the past week, Talarico has slim 2 to 5 point lead. Reporting by the Texas Tribune has Talarico picking up strong support from indepedndent and non-MAGA Republican voters. As the Texas Weekly also pointed out, Paxton has had to stop simply (and falsely) calling Talarico a vegan. Reportedly, “Tofu Talarico” still gets big laughs and applause at Paxton rallies, but worried GOP strategists are telling Paxton to start engaging with the cost-of-living issues faced by ordinary voters.
Early days yet…but if Talarico can succeed in flipping Texas, then the sky is the limit. It would be a significant step towards the Senate putting some guardrails around the Trump presidency. It would also vault Talarico into to the front rank of possible presidential nominees in 2028. Surely, Gavin Newsom cannot be the Democrats’ only option.
Shearon Van Ettenwater
A few days, I featured a couple of new tracks by Jonathan Meiburg the ornithologist, nature writer and indie musician who fronts the band Shearwater. Belatedly, I remembered this duet bbetween a much younger Sharon Van Etten and Meiburg, on a cover of the hit song that Tom Petty wrote for his pal Stevie Nicks: