Earlier this week, when Christopher Luxon ruled out forming any government with Opportunity, it was like the ugly kid in class suddenly announcing that he’s not going to the birthday party if that charismatic new kid in school is going to be there. Everyone shrugged. It felt more like petulance than a power play.
It is little wonder that Opportunity is on the rise. Given the vast, oceanic depths of Luxon’s unpopularity, traditional National Party voters who can’t stand Winston Peters or David Seymour have been looking at Opportunity. Perhaps they’re seeing a younger version of themselves, one that’s more representative of the conservative values that National used to promote, before it surrendered to the ideologues of the free market.
Luxon is trying to scare those homeless centre-right voters back into line, for fear that a vote for Opportunity will prove to be be a vote for Chris Hipkins and his Bolshevik hordes. With slightly more reason, Labour is depicting Opportunity as a Trojan Horse designed to make the economic policies of the hard right look more socially palatable.
Truth be told, even if Opportunity does clear the 5% barrier and get into Parliament, it is unlikely to be in sufficient numbers to render either of its signature policies (a Universal Basic Income, a Land Tax) acceptable to either Labour or National.
That said, if Opportunity does get over the 5% threshold, any prospective partner can’t expect to win its support for free. If it gets a comparable share of the vote to the ACT Party – which has won significant policy concessions from Luxon far in excess of the mandate ACT received at the last election – then even a Land Tax might begin to look somewhat less heinous.
Rather than consider which of Opportunity policies would be ruled out in post-election negotiations, it may be more useful to look at which of its policies might be ruled in. This is mere speculation, but the citizens assembly proposal seems potentially acceptable to both National and Labour. Having a chosen council of representative/expert members of the citizenry conduct hearings and pass non-binding verdicts on proposed legislation could provide National with at least the semblance of consultation.
As for Labour, it has been here before. Those with long memories will recall the Economic Summit talkfest of September 1984, a three day weekend of collaborative consultation attended by corporate chieftains, trade unionists, academics and experts, and held within the Parliamentary chamber, no less. This advice was then totally ignored by the Lange government as it bulldozed through a raft of policies that had no democratic mandate, and – in the case of some of the major asset sales – were opposed by 90% of the population.
No doubt, the Economic Summit did briefly generate a giddy “feel good” sensation that was welcome relief after the dark years of Muldoonism. Yet unless the citizens assembly concept is endowed with veto powers over the actions of the Executive and/or of elected local councils – and that’s unlikely – it would amount to little more than am exhausting PR exercise, given that there would not be a meaningful devolution of power.
For now, Opportunity is very much an exercise in atmospherics. It claims to be offering policy alternatives to business as usual, even if both of its potential senior partners have rejected its main proposals, on principle. Interestingly, neither major party is in a strong position to dictate the agenda. Under the guidance of Luxon, National has plummeted from a crushing election victory to below 30% in the polls in less than three years. That’s an unprecedented collapse of support for a first -term government.
Yet under Chris Hipkins, Labour has failed to present a credible alternative. Remember when Labour said it was waiting for the Budget numbers to release its range of costed policies? The Budget is long gone and yet we’re still waiting. Unfathomably, Labour has been happy to misread the public’s distaste for the Luxon government as a measure of its own level of popular support. For the past two and a half years, New Zealand First has been a more effective opposition bloc within the government, than Labour has been outside it.
This is the political void that Opportunity is filling, and the fact that most of its policies are aspirational is part of its appeal. Given the current nature of political reality, who wouldn’t want to dream? Politics, as the ACT Party sage Paul Henry recently said, is often all about the vibe.
Legacy medals
As the last, most distant outpost of Empire, New Zealand is the only place on earth that is leading its main news bulletins with our medal achievements at the Commonwealth Games. As talkshow host John Oliver explained a decade ago, the Commonwealth Games are what you get left with if the Olympics didn’t include athletes from the United States, China, Russia, the Middle East or Europe.
Regardless, the Commonwealth Games have now lasted almost as long as the halcyon days of the Empire it exists to commemorate. In 2030, it will be 100 years since the first Commonwealth Games (formerly called the Empire Games)were held in Hamilton, Canada. In 2030, the centenary Games will be held within the old Raj, in the city of Ahmedabad, in Gujarat state.
There’s no getting away from it. The Commonwealth Games is a “celebration” of a colonial legacy that New Zealand – in every other respect except for the sanitised new school curriculum – is consigning to the dustbin of history. Unfortunately, sport happens to be a valuable marketing tool. Major corporates will always support any proposal that exploits sports-based nationalism in order to deliver large numbers of consumers to advertisers.
Beyond the nations taking part, the Commonwealth Games are a non-event on the global sporting calendar. Inevitably, New Zealand wins a bigger haul of medals at these Games than it does at truly international sports events like the Olympics. Again, that’s not an accident. The exploits of Kenyan distance runners aside, the medal table tends to be dominated by the richer Commonwealth nations – England, Australia, Canada, New Zealand – that can afford to pour large amounts of money into elite sport.
To that extent, the medal hauls at the Commonwealth Games are something of a mirror of the impact that colonisation has had on the relative wealth of the countries taking part. No disrespect to the athletes, but this is a relic from an era that does not deserve to be kept on life support.
Heading for the last round-up
One of the oddities of Election 2026 is that neither Christopher Luxon nor Chris Hipkins are likely to remain in politics much beyond the formation of the next government. Win or lose, Luxon is toast given that a reduced National caucus will have been given ample grounds to conclude that it was returned to power despite Luxon, and not because of him.
Labour seemed to conclude long ago that it would lose this year’s election. That may explain why it has retained the exact same leadership team as place holders, even though the public rejected them with extreme prejudice at the last election. It is also why Labour has done no public penance for its abject failings in 2023. Apparently, the party leadership has decided to save its last best hope – Kieran McAnulty – for 2029. Until then, voters should not be leaving any messages for the Labour Party, since its telephone is currently unattended.
In the meantime, here’s some footage of Christopher Luxon leading the National Party caucus in preparation for the election campaign. (That’s Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop standing next to him with the hats. Opportunity are the late arrivals.) The gender balance in this clip is what you’d expect from a party opposed to pay equity.