Labour finally came down off the fence last week and agreed to give National the votes required to get the free trade deal with India through Parliament, after New Zealand First came out against it. The process involved could hardly have been less democratic. This trade deal was signed before the New Zealand public got a chance to see the text, let alone contribute to it.
As Keiller MacDuff reported for RNZ, the trade unions also had no opportunity (a) to see the text beforehand, or (b) to constructively comment on the possible implications for New Zealand’s work force. So much for economic progress involving a partnership between government, business and unions. Australians and Germans see fit to do that sort of thing, but what do they know?
The “grand coalition” between National and Labour on trade will help Winston Peters to promote the fiction that NZF is a maverick force, and one that operates outside the unpopular government to which it belongs. What’s not for Peters to like? NZF gets to enjoy the big salaries and other perks of power, while feigning independence from the ruling team to which it belongs.
New Zealand First is expert at straddling these contradictions. It opposes the forces of globalisation, but props up the governments that promote them. It pretends to be a watchdog on the political and business elites, while pocketing donations from some of the wealthiest people in the country. The Spinoff’s Toby Manhire recently listed some of the main elements in the Peters playbook:
…The scapegoating of immigrant communities, a loathing of international institutions [e.g. the WHO, the UN] an anti-elitist platform (albeit one funded by some of the wealthiest and most connected people imaginable) and appeal to the disenfranchised. It comes with an embrace of the culture wars, shaking a fist at “wokeism” and identity politics…
Normally under MMP, junior parties suffer from being seen as the passengers/accomplices of the ruling party in government. When the tide went out on the Clark government in 2008, the same currents swept New Zealand First out of Parliament altogether. This time, the unpopularity of Christopher Luxon has made it so much easier for Peters to put a semblance of daylight between himself and National.
New Delhi, Old Tricks
New Zealand’s free trade deal with India will offer tariff relief to exporters of certain commodities (lamb, wine, kiwifruit) and will also benefit our educational institutions. It will serve to diversify the markets for some of our exports, but it offers nothing like the same potential rewards as the 2008 free trade seal with China.
That’s mainly because dairy – our main export commodity- is not included. Dairy will remain just as dependent as ever on China. From the outset, the Indians ruled out the vast bulk of our dairy exports. Nothing personal about this. On principle, India has excluded dairy from all of its FTAs with other countries and trading blocs, in order to protect India’s huge numbers of small farmers.
Moreover, the applause for the FTA with India has ignored the fact that while there are tariff reductions on many of our export items, this won’t be occurring in splendid isolation. Over the past five years, India has concluded eight other FTAs and economic partnership deals with other countries, and it has an interim deal with the USA in the wings.
Meaning: New Zealand is far from being the first in the queue to win improved access to those fabled 1.4 billion customers in India. (Note: only between 66 million and 100 million belong to the middle class.) In reality, it will be our relative position with respect to our trading rivals that will dictate the extent of our earnings, rather than any comparison with the trade barriers that we used to face in the past. Some of our competitors have received similar, or greater, benefits.
Oddly, India and New Zealand signed the FTA while apparently still holding different views about the meaning of one of its key clauses. This clause requires the New Zealand government to promote circa $NZ34 billion of private investment in India over the next 15 years. India has taken this commitment so seriously that it has provided a dedicated desk within India, to facilitate these New Zealand private sector investments.
In short, India is giving every sign that it is treating this clause as a literal commitment, while New Zealand is claiming that it is merely an aspirational goal, with no real substance. Incredibly, no one seems to have thought it necessary/desirable to clarify this important point during the negotiations.
In the apparent absence of a definitive interpretation, this clause provides India with leverage to claw back some of the FTA concessions as it sees fit, over the coming years. In arriving at such judgements, our levels of private investment and the balance of bilateral trade will be important factors to India, as will the “vibes” around that trade. Right now, the vibes we are giving off to India could hardly be worse.
Soft on racism
The striking thing about the recent “butter chicken tsunami” episode has been how weak the criticism of NZF has been from its coalition partners. Only a few years ago, the centre-right parties positioned themselves as the steadfast champions of Indian dairy owners being subjected to violence. National in particular, promoted itself as the tough-on-crime scourge of the liberal left.
Yet when Cabinet Minister and NZF deputy leader Shane Jones targeted the Indian community – and the 5,000 skilled Indian workers and students set to come here under the FTA deal – with racist rhetoric that risks inciting violence against them, Luxon merely called the taunt (a) “unhelpful” and (b) an example of Jones’ penchant for oratorical excess.
Police Minister Mark Mitchell also wrote off Jones’ racism as a personal foible that had misfired, this time: “We all know he’s got his own style of communication, but in that case he got it wrong. I hope he’s reflected on it, and that we don’t see comments like that again in future.” If only.
Newsflash for Mitchell: being soft on racism means being soft on the crime that racists incite. In addition, National claims to be particularly tough on serial offenders. Well, Jones has a long rap sheet when it comes to whipping up public hostility to the Indian community. In 2020, Jones claimed Indian students were “ruining” New Zealand academic institutions. The same year, Jones made derogatory comments about the Indian community’s reaction to changes to the visa entitlements for spouses in arranged marriages. Meng Foon, the Race Relations Commissioner at the time, called Jones’ comments about Indians “racist” and “ irresponsible.”
The racist stereotyping of Indians has not been limited to New Zealand First politicians. A year ago, Education Minister Erica Stanford made headlines in the Hindustan Times in Mumbai after saying in Parliament that she never replies to Indians, and treats emails from Indians as spam. Needless to say, Jones “butter chicken tsunami” slur was also reported in the Hindustan Times, which linked the comment to the imminent free trade deal. Jones’ racist slur also made headlines in Taiwan, and in one of Asia’s leading newspapers, the South China Morning Post.
Deterring digital talent
One of the other downsides of this chronic race-baiting is that it isn’t just a danger to the local Indian community. The repeated use of racist stereotypes by prominent politicians (who suffer no significant consequences) cannot avoid making New Zealand a less attractive destination for the skilled digital talent that India produces in profusion.
Silicon Valley has long been a significant destination for India’s highly educated, highly skilled talent. Donald Trump’s crusade against immigrants and the cancellation/deferral of visa renewals is hitting India’s tech sector hard:
The fallout is severe for Indian tech workers in the United States. Anyone travelling home for family emergencies or business will risk being stranded for 12–15 months while waiting for a fresh visa foil. Large IT firms have issued “do-not-travel” advisories, and some are exploring short-term remote-work arrangements from Canada or Mexico to avoid productivity gaps.
Start-ups that rely on founders shuttling between Bengaluru and Silicon Valley face disrupted fund-raising schedules. Families are split across borders; dependants on H-4 visas who left the US for winter break cannot return. Travel-management teams are pivoting to virtual meetings and warning senior leadership that critical on-site support for US clients may have to be delivered from India.
Unfortunately for us, the risk is that the skilled Indian talent that is now looking beyond the US for a more stable, more welcoming work/home environment will be looking (a) at the racist comments by Jones, and (b) at the anti-immigrant comments by Peters, and will therefore be less likely to choose this country as an option.
After all, lifestyle (rather than pay) is said to be our main selling card to skilled talent on the global market. That lifestyle looks less attractive when Cabinet Ministers routinely get away scot free with making bigoted comments about Indians, and when the mayor of New Zealand’s largest city likens someone of Indian heritage to a “Muslim terroris”. That comment too, made headlines in the Times of India.
Since Jones is a serial offender on this score, Christopher Luxon really needed to come up with something stronger than a tongue-clucking “There goes Shane again” response. Especially since it came on the eve of New Zealand signing an FTA that purports to put out the welcome mat to India’s students and skilled workers.
They’re dancing, behind movie screens
The recent death of the great Bollywood singer Asha Bhosle at the age of 92, came four years after the death (also at 92) of her even more celebrated older sister, Lata Mangeshkar. Most Westerners came to know of Asha Bhosle through Cornershop’s beloved mega-hit “Brimful of Asha.”
Incidentally, the bridge on the original version had put the love that Cornershop maestro Tjinder Singh has for Asha’s music alongside his other musical consolations and inspirations :
Mohammed Rafi (forty-five) Lata Mangeshkar (forty-five) Solid state radio (forty-five)Ferguson mono (forty-five)Bon public (forty-five) Jacques Dutronc and the Bolan Boogies; The Heavy Hitters and the chi chi music; All India radio (forty-five)Two in ones (forty-five) Argo records (forty-five)Trojan records (forty five)…
Here’s Norman Cook’s hit remix of the song:
And here’s a clip that contains Asha Bhosle’s biggest hit, from the soundtrack for the 1971 film Hare Rama Hare Krishna. In the foreground, the clip also features some classic footage of the hippies of the day: