New Zealand likes to portray itself as a steadfast champion of international law. (We’re the brave little country that stands up for what’s right). In reality, we repeatedly make exceptions for Washington and Israel. We treat their compliance with international law as voluntary, and only to the extent they see fit. OK by us. That’s not just my own jaundiced opinion. It is what PM Christopher Luxon openly said this week.
Towards the end (at 1.19.27) of Luxon’s State of the Nation press conference a few days ago, a reporter asked the PM if the US was “right” to capture the president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro. After expressing his distaste for Maduro and his regime, Luxon replied: “We expect every country to be compliant with international law. Ultimately, that’s up to the US to make that determination.”
Huh? Luxon seemed to be saying that compliance with international law is whatever the United States says it is. (“It’s up to the US to make that determination.”) Another journalist repeated much the same question: “Do you think the US action was appropriate? Luxon, again: “Well, that’s up to the US to determine [that] they are compliant with international law. That’s up to them to determine that, as it is for every country to say whether they are operating within international law.”
This is bizarre stuff. International law is not a self-regulating system in which aggressors can be left to decide for themselves whether or not they’ve been breaking the rules. That’s why we have a World Trade Organisation, UN Conventions and an International Court of Justice. It is also why New Zealand continues to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while brushing aside Russia’s rationale for doing so. We didn’t let the Kremlin decide for itself.
To state the obvious, New Zealand cannot selectively uphold international laws and the UN Charter when Russia is in breach, while allowing the US to “determine” whether or not it has been trampling all over them. Yet our government seems willing to interpret international law in accord with whatever the US “determines” it to be. If so, why not eliminate the middle man, retire Winston Peters as surplus to requirements, and take our orders straight from Marco Rubio?
Footnote One: In the meantime, this social media post by Trump depicts Greenland and Canada as decked out in US colours. If both get taken over – by “negotiation” aka Washington making offers that can’t be refused – we can expect Luxon to await instructions from Washington as to whether such hostile takeovers have been kosher under international law.
Footnote Two: Want further evidence of our lack of spine? Seven NATO countries that have expressed solidarity with Denmark -plus Denmark itself – have since been threatened by the US with a 10 percent tariff starting on February 1st, increasing to 25 percent if a deal for a U.S. purchase of Greenland is not reached by June 1st.
The European Union issued a joint statement by the eight countries in the firing line – Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland – that re-stated their commitment to the principles of “sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Luxon’s response last Monday? To reframe this as a free trade issue, not a one of territorial integrity and sovereignty: “Tarifffs,” Luxon said solemnly, “are not the way to go about it.”
Right. So….when faced with a potential US hostile takeover of Denmark/Greenland, and the potential break-up of NATO, Luxon can bring itself only to express concern about the potential for tit-for-tat trade tariffs, and to urge everyone to talk it over. No stand taken to oppose the US aggression against a sovereign nation and ally. With weak-kneed friends like New Zealand, Denmark, Greenland and Canada have no need of enemies.
Footnote Three : All of this comes only days after New Zealand publicly criticised its “independent” central banker for co-signing a joint letter (with other leading central bankers around the globe) supporting the principle of central bank independence, which is now under sustained attack in the US.
Even though the decisions made by Trump’s target – US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell – reverberate throughout the global economy, our government cravenly chose to let the Trump administration know that (a) we regard his attacks on Powell’s independence as a purely internal US matter, and that (b) we had not authorised our central banker to sign the joint letter of support. Needless to say, we have been the only country to abase ourselves in this fashion.
Footnote Four: Finally… an interesting column this week on American Prospect finds King Lear to be highly relevant to current geo-political analysis.:
Act I, Scene 1, of King Lear not only introduces us to the aging monarch, but makes clear that he’s lost his marbles. Rather than subject a hugely important strategic decision – the coming division of his kingdom – to rational calculation, he requires his pending successors (his daughters) to tell him how much they love him. The sheer volume of their professed adoration—the more over the top, the better—becomes the sole criterion by which he makes policy.
Sounds familiar, right? That’s where much of the world is right now:
Age, narcissism, and megalomania now determine Trump’s actions and, alarmingly, the domestic and foreign policy of the United States. When the consequences are confined to his ordering up monuments to his assumed greatness….they can be dismissed as relatively harmless outbursts of ridiculously overindulged self-love.
But when, as he told the New York Times earlier this month, he views the only constraints on his actions to be his own sense of propriety and morality, rather than the Constitution that US Presidents are sworn to preserve, protect, and defend, then we’ve been shuttled into a different form of government than the one we’ve assumed we’ve lived in for the past 250 years: a monarchy, at least as Trump himself sees it.
In similar vein, Trump has said his desire to annex Greenland is not based on US security needs, or due to Greenland’s alleged store of accessible rare earth minerals. As Trump has said, it is derived from his psychological need to own things. “Its psychologically important to me,” Trump told the New York Times.
One can also point to his letter to Norway’s prime minister, in which he blamed the government of Norway for the fact he didn’t receive the Nobel Peace Prize, and cited this as a reason why he wants to seize Greenland, apparently as payback to Oslo. This, too, is in the grand tradition of mad kings making major policy decisions based on megalomania, whims and the fearful flattery of courtiers, neighbours and allies.
Most New Zealanders, one would imagine, do not want this country to line up alongside the other flunkeys at the court of King Donald. With that in mind, let’s not join Christopher Luxon in encouraging this mad monarch to decide for himself what counts as compliance with the rules of international law. The need for dissent is urgent. Trump is already giving himself licence to (a) break any international laws and (b) torpedo any international alliances that get in his way, or in the way of Vladimir Putin.
Even so…at this point, joining the stooges around Trump’s throne looks more dangerous for New Zealand than putting some distance between ourselves and the United States, ASAP.
Fixing and Building
In his State of the Nation speech this week, Luxon preached the good news gospel of low interest rates and relatively low inflation, the signs of life within the construction industry and the rising confidence levels among farmers and employers. Even the Investor Visa scheme rated a mention, supposedly as a sign of global confidence in NZ Inc.
At some future point, Luxon indicated, firms might begin to act on these upbeat feelings, and hire more people. If they eventually do, maybe those same workers – once they’ve paid the rent, the power bill, the school fees, their rates and their debts –might conceivably go out and buy a few things besides the bare essentials. Or maybe not. There’s a good reason why economists are predicting the next recovery to be export-led. If so, the trickle down” benefits and job growth could take longer to arrive.
On the basis of this Ponzi scheme of “maybes”, Luxon went on to tell the nation that the recovery was already here, or reliably due any time soon. Fair enough. His job as Cheerleader-in-Chief involves trying to turn the recovery into a self-fulfilling prophecy. People will keep on being told that things are looking good and going great, but optimism has a limited shelf life. There is a limited appetite for cognitive dissonance. The voting public will need to see evidence that these alleged good times are actually making a difference to their personal circumstances.
After all, as Bloomberg News recently pointed out, the perception that voters have of the economy is based on their own personal experience, not on the media repetition of political narratives. Regardless of the news of positive economic indicators, if voters continue to be anxious and financially stretched, if they keep on feeling insecure in their jobs, they will remain sceptical and politically disengaged.
Given that climate of healthy scepticism, it would be foolhardy for the coalition parties to keep badgering the public with the good news ( for some) from economic indicators which in themselves cannot feed a family, or pay the mortgage. Having Luxon burbling on about the good times just around the corner is only likely to fuel an already sizeable public perception that the man is hopelessly out of touch with life, as most people experience it.
Briefly, randomly
…Does Radio New Zealand really think its audience’s summer holidays last from Christmas until the last week of January?
…How many extreme weather events will it take before our politicians start treating them as a warning sign about climate change, and the need to fast track policies to mitigate its effects ?
…On 9 February, this year’s Superbowl will take place. The star of this year’s half-time show this will be the Puerto Rican musician Bad Bunny, a superstar idolised by the Latino community. Will ICE treat this as a golden opportunity to carry out mass arrests, and turn the Superbowl into a riot? Homeland Security chief Kristi Noem has said ICE agents will be “all over” the event. On the big day, we can be pretty sure that the people that ICE stops and arrests will be ticket holders with brown faces, the ushers, ticket and bag checkers, the concession stand employees, the janitors and the grounds staff.
One country-sized megastar
Zach Bryan’s evolution into a country music star seems both unlikely and inevitable. There’s just enough genuine grit to his Springsteenish working guy image to separate him out from the rest of the pack of gym-honed Nashville smoothies with flannel shirts, a dog and a pickup truck.
In another Springsteenish move, Bryan’s new album With Heaven on Top comes in two versions – one with a band, and one with just an acoustic guitar. Here’s the band version of “Slicked Back…” Here, Bryan is a seventh generation country mouse facing off against a slick city mouse role model that he’d like to emulate, on condition that he can bring his good gal along for the ride: