No one likes being a downer at Christmas time, so…as we look forward into 2026, we can all agree that some economic growth is better than no economic growth at all. That said, did Christmas come early for you? Finance Minister Nicola Wills says it did, citing the 1.1% rise in GDP during the September quarter, which she took as a sure sign of far better times to come for you and yours. Hmm. Willis never hesitates to over-egg her own omelettes, but this really is wishful thinking.
No doubt, it is good to see some signs of life returning in manufacturing, construction, real estate and retail. Reportedly, some people are importing more cars. (Good for them.) But in reality, this little ripple of good news is a very long way from lifting all of our boats.
In fact, that 1.1% lift in September barely compensated for the 1% fall in GDP we experienced during the June quarter, such that it only puts us back to where we’d been before, into the conditions that motivated a record outflow of New Zealanders to go looking for a better life somewhere else. Worryingly, that recent 1.1% rise may be as good as it gets. Gareth Kiernan of Infometrics is predicting a smaller rise in the next GDP figures in February, of between 0.4% and 0.7%.
Moreover, even this burst of growth does not look sustainable, given that it has been the result of the Reserve Bank’s cuts to interest rates, not to government policy. (Willis cannot legitimately claim credit for those good GDP numbers in September.) Unfortunately, the financial markets are already expecting the Reserve Bank to begin raising interest rates again by the end of 2026 at the latest, just after next year’s election.
Given that jobs and wage rises tend to “lag” (i.e. they’re the last indicators to improve during a recovery) any labour market improvements will be likely to arrive only shortly before the economy heads into another doom spiral of interest rate rises chasing inflation. For these reasons, it is hard to see 2026 bringing much genuine relief for low to middle income households, although – in an election year – the government will be hyping to the max any flickering signs of economic life. As I’ve mentioned before, what the business media calls “consumer spending” is very much limited to New Zealand’s top 10-20% of income earners, the only people to enjoy much in the way of discretionary income.
The other 80% of New Zealanders are just getting by, and the chatter about economic recovery barely touches them. To all intents, many households are locked in perpetual recession by the economic settings that Willis is urging us to celebrate.
A Sense Of History
Day in, week out, Werewolf pays scant attention to the tribulations of the landed gentry, and the values that underpin their way of life. In case you haven’t seen it before – and as a holiday bonus – here is Jim Broadbent’s classic monologue on the subject. In his hands, the burdens of inherited wealth, a title and a family manor turn into a horror show. No wonder the film director Rian Johnson (of Knives Out, American Horror Story fame) recommends A Sense of History so highly.
Music 2025 : some high points
These days, those end of year “Best of” music lists seem little more than an exercise in futility. Reason being, they’re an attempt to impose order on a random universe, given that most people hived off long ago into their own corners of the Forest of Song. That said, there has been something of a consensus forming this year around Dijon’s album Baby as the best album of 2025. Personally, I’d also rate Rosalia’s magnificently ambitious album Lux as another serious contender.
Dijon, 33, has been around for a while…and rather than drop any newcomers in at the deep end with the Baby album, I thought some of the earlier tracks and recent collaborations (eg. with Bon Iver and/or Justin Bieber) are worth re-visiting. I first became aware of him via his 2021 hit single “Many Times”, a hurtling dive into his even frustrated sensory memories:
Hip hop and the poppy, nu soul warmth of D’Angelo, Anderson Paak and further back Luther Vandross, are some of his reference points. So is Prince. On the Baby lead single “Yamaha” though, you hear more traces of Prince the balladeer/experimental artist than the funkster. Yet Dijon has also cited Little Feat and Lucinda Williams as key influences so…it wasn’t all that surprising to see him turn up earlier this year on Bon Iver’s “Day One” track, alongside another folk/indie darling, Jenn Wasner of Flock of Dimes.
This ’Day One” video also has to be on any shortlist of the best music videos of 2025:
As someone in the New Yorker said about the Baby album, its brilliance is contingent upon its inelegance. I took that to mean that the mash-up of styles (hip hop, post pop, electronica, Americana etc) is not some random kitchen sink miscellany, but indicative of the constantly buzzing mind of its creator. Here’s a live SNL version of the Baby album’s “Higher” track, where Dijon is backed by a stellar band that includes Justin Vernon (aka Bon Iver)and Amber Coffman of the Dirty Projectors :
Also from the Baby album, here’s “ FIRE”…This time, desperation collapses into grateful wonder: “Even when I’m by myself and I start to fantasize/I feel it in the pit of my chest: she loves me…”
OK, I mentioned Lux and Rosalia’s attempt to swallow the entire world of music. On Lux, she draws on European classical traditions (her main backing group on this album is the London Symphony Orchestra) and neo-flamenco, reggaeton, and more, in at least 13 different languages – all of which she puts to work in the service of an overall theme of spirituality transcending sensual obsessions. Here’s “Mio Cristo Piange Diamanti” (My Christ in diamond):
Finally, a few singles that IMO, are worth checking out. Have a happy time during your break, and thanks a lot for reading Werewolf and supporting it.
Jim Legxacy: “Stick”
Jane Remover: “JRJRJR”
Big Thief : “Los Angeles”;
Youth Lagoon: “Gumshoe”
Rosalia: “ Berghain”
Imperial Triumphant :“Lexington Delirium”
Dijon: “ Yamaha”
Cameron Winter : “Love Takes Miles”
Avalon Emerson and the Charm : “Eden”
Perfume Genius and Anna Calvi “ I See a Darkness”