Can you remember where you were at 7.25am on Tuesday morning at the dawning of what Donald Trump heralded as “one of the great days ever in civilisation?” Because you will want to be able to tell your grandchildren, right?
Let’s hold the balloons and confetti. It took barely 12 hours for this “peace plan” to begin to unravel. Already, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has bailed out of the few commitments that he made at the White House. No, there won’t ever be a Palestinian state; no, not even a reformed Palestine Authority will ever be allowed to govern Gaza, and if any IDF withdrawal occurs from Gaza at all, it will be “modest” at best.
Hamas however, has to meet all the demands being made of it – and quickly, or else. In reality, this “peace plan” is little more than a loaded gun being levelled at the head of every Palestinian. No surprise, really. We’ve all been to the Gaza Peace Deal casino before. (See May 2024. See January 15, 2025.) Many of the points in the latest incarnation of the plan have been tabled– and rejected- before, with both sides having their “under no circumstances” sticking points. So…what is the purpose of recycling so much that has already been discussed and rejected, and dressing it up as if it offers a significant new opportunity?
One logical explanation is that this peace plan – especially in the light of the absurd timetable Donald Trump has imposed on Hamas –has been set up to fail. In which case, as Fred Kaplan has pointed out on Slate, it would be more accurate to treat this gambit as Trump giving his pal Netanyahu the green light ( and cover) to finish the genocidal war in Gaza, and by any means Israel chooses.
As presented, the plan is a win/win for Israel. If Hamas signs up, Netanyahu gets the hostages back, with no strings attached. If Hamas doesn’t sign, the US has just given Israel a licence to complete the genocide. None of which has stopped Foreign Minister Winston Peters from continuing to suck up to Trump, by welcoming the American plan as an example of “global leadership.”
At the time of writing, Hamas hadn’t yet indicated what its response will be. Two of its key allies – Qatar and Turkey – have reportedly urged Hamas to sign. In the past, Hamas has said it will not unilaterally lay down its weapons, release all of the 20 remaining live hostages (this time, within 72 hours!) destroy all of its tunnels, disband as a political entity etc without any equivalent concessions being made by Israel. Such as: respecting a permanent ceasefire, and withdrawing its forces from Gaza which – lest we forget, Israel still occupies illegally, in defiance of international law and multiple UN resolutions.
At this point, even the extent of Israel’s commitment to the exchange of the Hamas-held hostages for a group of Palestinian prisoners being held in Israeli jails remains unclear.
Missing the details
Regardless, Trump is giving Hamas “3 to 4 days” to sign up to a plan that still lacks any number of essential details. Even amidst the self -congratulations at the White House, Trump and Netanyahu said they would not be taking questions, because they were still waiting for “signatures and approvals” on some of the relevant documents.
Meaning: a lot of key details are still up in the air, and Hamas is being pressured to sign a blank cheque on them. This is not (yet) a peace plan. At best, it is merely a framework for further negotiation over missing details that will be crucial to the outcome on the ground. Under the deal, it is being proposed that a “board of peace” chaired by Donald Trump will (a) get to decide who (besides Tony Blair) will be in Gaza’s “transitional government” (b) what its governing powers will be and (c) when if ever, it will hand over the reins of power, and to whom. All of the details on this have yet to be revealed.
Almost everything else is equally opaque. For example: which countries (besides Pakistan and Indonesia) will comprise the armed forces that will form the “International Security Force (ISF)” that will police Gaza, and what powers will it have – especially with respect to policing the actions of the Israeli military? This isn’t a mere technicality. When Israel kicked the United Nations out of food distribution in Gaza, it handed that job over to the US -led Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.
As a result, food kitchens have become lethal death traps that have already killed three times as many Palestinian civilians as the entire death toll of Israelis and foreigners killed by Hamas on October 7. Palestinians have very good reason to fear any US-led policing force in Gaza. (A force of UN peace-keepers would be the least worst option. Why isn’t it being embraced?) What safeguards can Palestinians have that the ISF and IDF will not jointly operate a similar “shoot on sight” policy with respect to Palestinians in Gaza, while backing off any actions against the IDF?
Finally…after all the talk about the need for “democratic” solutions to the Israel/Palestine conflict, we now have a 20 point “peace plan” for Palestine that doesn’t seem to have any input from Palestinians beyond ticking the “yes to all the above” box.
True, the plan does envisage that an already docile and even further neutered Palestinian Authority (PA) might (some day) be allowed to administer Gaza, but only on terms that the West dictates, and only after the PA has subjected itself to a “reform programme” to our satisfaction, and only after an election gets held (sometime) between candidates that Trump, Blair and their cronies have vetted and pre-approved. As mentioned above however, Israel is already rejecting even this grotesquely emasculated form of democracy.
Regardless, it is a “deal” that’s being presented to Hamas as an offer it can’t refuse. Otherwise…. Palestinians in Gaza will be ‘eliminated” by Israel, no further questions asked. If Hamas do eventually sign, make no mistake: the reluctant peacemakers here will have been Hamas, not the Israel/US partnership that has inflicted such immense and disproportionate suffering on the civilian population of Gaza. If the deal is signed, lets hope the Swedes might be able to see the black humour in awarding the Nobel Peace Prize jointly to Donald Trump and to Hamas.
Footnote: Reportedly, this latest US peace plan was co-authored by Tony Blair, Jared Kushner and Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, and the final touches were put together in meetings held between leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly gathering last week. While this was happening, our PM was missing in action. (He had a rugby match to attend at Eden Park).
Plainly, Christopher Luxon is entirely surplus to requirements. He has surrendered domestic policy to David Seymour, and foreign policy to Winston Peters. Maybe its time he was sent home on permanent leave without pay. Hard to see why anyone would feel a loss.