Like the Americans, maybe we should be re-naming our Ministry of Defence as the Ministry of War. The new frigates New Zealand is about to buy (to replace its ANZAC frigates) will have a vastly greater operational range and be capable of carrying Tomahawk Cruise missiles, amongst other lethal weaponry. At great expense, we’re equipping our navy and air force to help our allies carry out an air/sea attack upon China, which also happens to be the main market for our exports. To be clear, we’re not investing in equipment designed to defend the New Zealand homeland, or our exclusive economic zone.
Let’s back up for a bit. What kind of frigates are we about to buy? We are set to purchase at least two of the upgraded Japanese Mogami-class frigates that Australia selected in early August as being the ideal replacement vessel for its own ANZAC frigates. Ever desirous of being able to play with the big boys, we’re about to do the same. From October 20 to October 22, our military chiefs were in Tokyo, engaging in talks with the Japanese military about the terms of purchase and delivery :
Japan’s Kyodo News reports that the Government of New Zealand has expressed interest in acquiring a variant of the Mogami-class stealth frigates currently in service with the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF). Wellington’s expression of interest in the ships was confirmed by Rear Admiral Garin Golding, Chief of the Royal New Zealand Navy, in a recent meeting with Japanese Defence Minister Gen Nakatani in Tokyo.
Here’s a nearly 5 minute AI-assisted YouTube video with the same news story, plus additional information. How much will these ships cost our government – which is forever claiming that money is really, really tight, and that alas, the cupboard is bare whenever it is being asked to boost spending on social needs.
Figuring out the price tag
As the influential Diplomat website reports, Japan’s defence budget for fiscal year 2025 stated that the basic construction cost per improved Mogami-class vessel was 105 billion yen, or $NZ 1.194 billion. That basic unit cost to us may well be higher, since we will be paying either Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) in Japan, or the Henderson shipyards in Western Australia to build the ships for us.
Since we’re buying at least two, that means the construction cost alone will be circa $2.5- $3 billion. That’s before you get to the really expensive part: each ship’s self-defence and offensive weapon systems, the anti-submarine capacity, the arrays of Cruise missiles and additional surface to-ship/surface to air missiles, and a 32 cell vertical missile launch (VLS) capacity. Here’s how the Japanese Defense Ministry has itemised the array of add-ons, all of which come with a price tag:
The Japanese Defense Ministry said the improved Mogami will be fitted with longer-range missiles, upgraded multifunction radars and sensors, enhanced anti-submarine capabilities, and improved capabilities for various maritime operations. Specifically, the ship-launched, improved version of the Type 12 Surface-to-Ship Missile and the new ship-to-air guided missile will be equipped on the improved Mogami. The number of Mk.41 vertical launching system (VLS) cells, which serve as missile launchers, will also be doubled from 16 on the Mogami class to 32 on the upgraded Mogami. The upgraded Mogami will be closer to a missile frigate.
With luck, the fully kitted out version will cost (not quite) double the basic construction cost, but a conservative estimate would still put the final tab for New Zealand’s two ships at between $6-8 billion dollars. The mind boggles at the social and industrial transformation that such a massive investment could deliver here at home, if even only a fraction of that money was being spent on social needs.
The Mogami frigates have a 30 knot top speed, necessary if our ships are to be able to keep up with the US carrier fleets. The operational range of our frigates will have been nearly doubled – to 10,000 nautical miles from the current ANZAC frigates 6,000 nautical miles maximum. This extended range will enhance the potential uses of these ships as lethal platforms in the force projection scenarios being envisaged by our allies. Meaning: we are arming ourselves to do battle with China within or near China’s homeland, not ours. These are offensive weapons, in all senses of the word.
Choosing Mogami
So why did Australia choose the Mogami, a decision that left us with little choice but to follow suit, given that inter-operability is such a driving motive? Two answers were provided to The Diplomat team by Sumomo Sayako, director of the International Cooperation Division in the Equipment Policy Department at the Japanese Ministry of Defense’s Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Agency :
Sumomo pointed out that the improved Mogami-class can be used for 40 years, compared to the usual 30 years, and that it can be operated by only 90 people, whereas a conventional destroyer requires more than 150 people to operate.
That last fact must have been music to the ears of a New Zealand Navy beset with staff recruitment and retention problems. The current frigates (HMNZS Te Kaha or HMNZS Te Mana) require up to 178 personnel in all, not counting the handful of flight personnel when helicopters are involved. The Mogami delivers high tech detection and communications systems, enhanced weaponry and – apparently – fewer actual sailors.
Buying Japanese also locks Japan even more closely into US-led alliances in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan is already part of the Quad regional security grouping alongside the US, Australia, and India. Japan is also expected to join AUKUS – which may soon become JAUKUS – if that deeply troubled pact ever finally gets off the ground.
Building tensions, tensions over building
Just where New Zealand’s ships will feature in the already long Mogami construction queue has yet to be seen, but the timing is likely to be a tight squeeze. The working life of our current ANZAC frigates is set to expire in 2035, which is now barely 10 years away. Mitstubishi is set to build the first three Australian Navy frigates by 2032 – the first one is (ambitiously) supposed to be ready for delivery in 2029 – and then the next eight of Australia’s fleet of eleven Mogami frigates will be built in Western Australia.
Will New Zealand be fitted in at the tail end of that long queue ? Creating jobs for Australians has always a key aspect of our defence relationship with Canberra. Reportedly, Australia’s shipbuilding capacity is already behind schedule. So, will Japanese shipyards have to come to our rescue? Either way, getting those frigates done and delivered by 2035 is going to involve a tight deadline.
Finally, let’s talk about priorities. Nicola Willis claimed that New Zealand could afford only a Toyota Corolla version of the Cook Strait ferries. Yet lo and behold, she seems more than happy to bankroll a Ferrari for the Defence forces ! All up, these two new frigates are going to end up costing nearly double the highest estimated price tag for those much-criticised iRex ferries. Go figure.
Footnote One: Deliberately this time, I haven’t addressed AUKUS, which is plagued with shipyard delivery problems. To date, the two US shipyards building the Virginia-class nuclear submarines essential to AUKUS have never achieved anything like the annual production rates required to meet the needs of the US Navy, let alone having the capacity to provide extra subs for the Australans in the timeframe that Canberra needs. (To meet US Navy needs, the US shipyards need to be building 2.0 subs per year. To have an excess able to meet Australia’s needs, the shipyards would need to be building 2.3 a year. Yet those US shipyards have never exceeded 1.2 Virginia-class nuclear subs built per annum. AUKUS is simply not a practical concept.
This shipbuilding conflict between US vs Australian naval needs lies at the heart of the US review of AUKUS being conducted by top Pentagon adviser Elbridge Colby. (He’s the son of William Colby, the Cold War chieftain of the CIA.) The Colby review is due before year’s end.
With Donald Trump, US needs will always prevail. Australia’s refusal to guarantee that it would go to war over a Chinese invasion of Taiwan also will not help Australia’s bid for submarine prioritisation. That could explain why during his recent meeting with Aussie PM Anthony Albanese, Trump went out of his way to signal that there is no need for AUKUS, since the US enjoys such overwhelming military superiority over China, and – according to Trump – this unequal military power balance isn’t going to change any time soon.
To give chapter and verse on that key point…Here again, is the key exchange on AUKUS that took place at the Albanese White House press conference. At 11.18 in the question time after meeting Albanese this exchange occurred:
Q. Mr President, your Secretary of War Peter Hegseth..warned about the potential likelihood or threat of President Xi ordering an invasion of Taiwan.. Do you see AUKUS as a deterrent to China in the Indo-Pacific?
President Trump: “Yeah I do, I think it is, but I don’t think we’re going to need it. I think we’ll be just fine with China. China doesn’t want to do that. First of all, the United States is the strongest military power in the world by far, its not even close, not even close. We have the best equipment, we have the best of everything, and nobody’s going to mess with that. And I don’t see that at all with President Xi, I think we’re going to get along very well as it pertains to Taiwan and others. Now that doesn’t mean its not the apple of his eye, because probably it is, but I don’t see anything happening.”
Meaning: The US believes it can go it alone against China in the Pacific, in the unlikely event that a need to do so should ever arise. If we buy these frigates, New Zealand will be trailing along behind, with no guarantee that our vastly expensive efforts to curry favour with the Trump White House will ever be acknowledged, let alone reciprocated.
Rosalia, going operatic
With the London Symphony Orchestra gamely tagging along for the ride, Rosalia goes full blown Maria Callas coloratura on this wildly ambitious (and firmly tongue in cheek) glimpse into what her upcoming album Lux has in store. Yves Tumor and the god-like presence of Bjork add considerably to the goings on.
Before “Malamente” and the No Mal Querer album made her a global superstar, Rosalia had already served an intense apprenticeship in classical flamenco. Clearly, that background has helped her to pull off this one-of a-kind hybrid: