Yesterday’s demotion of Shane Reti was inevitable. Reti’s attempt at a re-assuring bedside manner always did have a limited shelf life, and he would have been a poor and apologetic salesman on the campaign trail next year. As a trained doctor, he had every reason to be looking embarrassed about the health policies he was promoting.
Even so, making Simeon Brown the new Minister of Health is a signal that the gloves are coming off in this crucial portfolio. Alarmingly, PM Christopher Luxon even used the term “ruthless execution” to describe how Brown will be carrying out his new role.
Putting a hardline ideologue like Brown in charge of the country’s most important caring ministry is obviously a risky move for everyone, including his caucus colleagues. As Transport Minister, Brown never seemed to have a reverse gear. Under his leadership, the public health sector will almost certainly be subjected to further rounds of austerity – yet National is gambling that Brown can brazen it out without there being serious blowback from voters at next year’s election. Quite a gamble.
In one key sense, it doesn’t matter who is at the helm – Reti or Brown – if the coalition government chooses to keep health funding and staffing at their current inadequate levels. Token annual increases to Vote Health will not suffice. New Zealand has an ageing population. For that reason, demand is rising in public health, people are presenting with multiple and more complex conditions, the prices of drug treatments are rising sharply, trained staff are leaving in droves and the level of unmet needs is skyrocketing.
National is giving every sign of living in denial about all of those worrisome trends. So far, it has responded to the worsening crisis in public health with job cuts, staffing freezes, and per capita funding reductions. These austerity measures are what Brown has been appointed to ruthlessly “deliver.”
Yesterday, National replaced its ineffectual yes man with a hardliner who – in his Transport portfolio – has shown little interest in public feeback, professional advice, or the subtleties of his ministerial roles. Reti was a poor champion of public health, but Brown – judging by his track record – is likely to actively undermine the public health system in the pursuit of short-term cost savings.
Footnote: Yesterday’s appointment of a Minister for the South Island smacks of political posturing. Having a South Island Minister will not make one iota of difference to the fact that the key decisions on the Dunedin Hospital upgrade will now be made by Simeon Brown. Chances are, the cost of setting up and operating this new South Island ministry will rival the cost of the alleged “blowout” on the Dunedin Hospital project.
Tik Tok On Death Row
The Tik Tok ban – and the three month reprieve promised by Donald Trump- are other examples of political theatre. As with the ban on Huawei, no evidence has ever been offered of serious security breaches by Tik Tok. If customer data really was the prime concern, the US Congress would be passing data protection laws to which US companies would also have to comply. After all…as things stand, US platforms are required to hand over US customer data on demand to the NSA, FBI, Homeland Security and a raft of other government agencies.
What we are really talking about here is the US using bogus security risks as a protectionist weapon in its trade wars with Chinese firms. Huawei is still the global leader in smartphone technology, but for years now, Western customers have been forced to buy inferior US and Korean products.
Similarly, Tik Tok’s chief sin was that it became a world leader in the soft power at which the US used to excel. So, the US is using inflated fears of security risks to bring Tik Tok down by forcing a 51% sale of the company to US corporates. Keep in mind that despite the absence of evidence of serious security concerns, ByteDance, the Chinese owner of Tiktok, had previously agreed to place all of its US customer data in the care of the US firm, Oracle. Even that step wasn’t deemed to be enough.
So why then is Trump now talking about giving Tik Tok a three month reprieve? The Tik Tok ban happens to be wildly unpopular with its young American users, so a temporary “soft on Tik Tok” stance would be of benefit to Trump, while also keeping the US tech giants servile in the interim, lest he permanently overturn the Tik Tok ban out of spite.
In addition – and this may seem odd – Trump actually needs a personal popularity boost. The polls are showing that his policies are more popular than he is. Those popular policies include the protectionist tariffs against foreign goods, and actions against undocumented migrants. Even so, the tariffs enjoy public support on the grounds they may save US jobs, but that support could quickly erode if – as many economists expect – they eventually cause the cost of living to rise for US consumers, by making imports more expensive.
As of mid January, Trump’s “unfavourablity”ratings coming into office were unusually high, and they carry over into misgivings about his Cabinet appointments. Interestingly, 62% of Americans oppose Trump issuing blanket pardons to the January 6th rioters.
Trump’s temporary Tik Tok reprieve may well be intended to keep the US tech giants subject to his whims, but who really knows? Right now, Trump is a 78 year old entering his final term as President. Being viewed favourably by the majority of Americans may not matter quite so much to him anymore. Taking down his enemies, real and imagined, may be his higher calling.